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INFORMATION |
The
Ninth IASTED International Conference on
POWER AND ENERGY SYSTEMS
~ PES 2007 ~
January 3 – 5, 2007
Clearwater, Florida, USA
Tutorial
Session
Countering
Fears about Energy
S.
Fred Singer
Science & Environmental
Policy Project
singer@sepp.org
Abstract
Energy, generated mostly from fossil fuels and nuclear fission,
is the lifeblood of economic growth and of rising global
prosperity. Yet there are several “fears” driving
energy policy, which impose unnecessary costs on consumers,
lower the standards of living, and threaten the economies
of the poorest nations.
- Fear
of health consequences of air pollution:
This problem has been largely overcome by technology –
even for coal-burning powerplants. Several methods are
available and compete on cost: Gasification of coal in
combined-cycle burning (IGCC) and various methods of flue-gas
scrubbing with lime or with bromine. Meanwhile, unregulated
indoor air pollution is becoming increasingly important.
- Fear
of climate change:
While carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas that should cause
global warming, the available observational evidence shows
the effect to be insignificant. Yet many nations have
been persuaded to use high-cost natural gas (methane)
or even costlier “renewable” energy (wind,
etc). In particular, the Kyoto Protocol would effectively
ration energy. Meanwhile, economic studies indicate that
higher CO2 levels and modest warming are beneficial and
would raise GDP.
- Fear
of oil embargoes: With a well-functioning
world market there should be little concern about oil
supply security. It is in the interest of producers to
keep the price from rising too high. But increasing prices
are inevitable; as low-cost oil supplies are gradually
depleted, they will induce more conservation and substitutions
for petroleum.
- Fear
of health consequences of nuclear radiation:
Politically driven fears, not scientific data, support
the “linear-no-threshold” (LNT) hypothesis.
In reality, natural radioactivity and small exposures
to manmade radiation may actually improve the functioning
of the immune system (“Hormesis”). Abandoning
LNT-based regulation would lower the cost of nuclear energy
generation and the disposal of spent reactor fuel.
Overcoming these
fears through public education involves fighting entrenched
bureaucracies and other interests – and may take time.
Biography
S. Fred Singer has written on the price
of world oil and calculated its "optimum price path."
He authored a number of books, including Free Market Energy
– and most recently Unstoppable Global Warming
– Every 1500 Years. He has held several university
faculty positions and five federal appointments, most recently
as Chief Scientist of Transportation. He was an adviser
to Treasury Secretary Wm Simon following the 1974 "oil
crisis" and is an active participant in the ongoing
debate on future oil supply. His major contributions have
been to space science and space technology, including service
as the founding director of the US Weather Satellite Service
(now NESDIS-NOAA), for which he received many awards.
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